In shipping - is there such a thing as a good or bad deal?

Further to my post and poll on linkedin 

Thanks again to everyone for contributing. Amazing the diversity and calibre of those of you that participated. 

And the results are in!

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Shipbroker and chartering negotiations. Is there such a thing as a good or bad deal? If there is when can we make that call?

On fixing?                                       20 pct

At the end of the employment?      36 pct

No such thing - all relative             44 pct

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A solid representation across the board. The no such thing crowd marginal winners!

And now for my perspective. And like previous polls and discussions - this is all just a matter of opinion.

Ill break down each option

No such thing - all relative

 

Most of us who have been around for a long time understand that what looks like a bad deal now may in fact be a good deal in hindsight. The same the other way around. The passing of time can do that. Also, looking at deals from outside in, maybe we don't have the full picture behind the strategy that would push a principal to accept a 'bad looking' deal. EG maybe they are long or short on tonnage or cargo and the 'thousand bucks here and there' is of little importance. 

 

Those playing a bigger game (asset players) care 'increasingly less' about smaller deals. Good counterparty (tick), reasonable rate (tick).

 

Having said all of that, and taking into account my natural inclination towards Neitzche's general belief that 'there are no facts only interpretations' - I still do believe that there is such a thing as a good or bad deal. At its' most obvious a bad deal has sent many a firm bankrupt. Try forking out a few hundred million dollars for some new building ships just prior to a market crash? For every loser there's a winner.....in this case the shipyard who sold at the market high.

 

In the past we have seen players go very long or very short (on cargoes or ships) and the culmination of those deals can cause real pain for a real long time.

 

Need more convincing 

 

How about the Louisiana purchase? Not a good deal for France one would think...The USA are happy

 

The Beatles selling the rights to their catalogue in 1969 wasn't a great deal...and Michael Jackson cashed in many years later.

 

Conclusion - I still (want to) believe there is such a thing as a good or bad deal...

 

At the end of the employment

 

This one is an interesting because it makes the most logical sense. Negotiate the deal, execute the deal, run the numbers - have we made money or not? Common sense and a great conservative approach - if not a bit boring. 

 

The issue with this approach is that the longer a deal takes to execute the more likely it is that something may go wrong. I don't like sitting around waiting for things to happen - it makes me nervous. This one is also about perspective - an operator will take pride in executing a deal brilliantly (as they should) but the chartering guys may think their job was done prior (at fixing)

 

Conclusion - Good conservative approach, a little boring, and maybe a little late to make the call if its a good deal or not.

 

At the time of Fixing (and the winner is!)

 

In the wonderful tradition of Enron Corp most commercial people celebrate deals at the time they are fixed - the rest is someone else's (operations, finance) problem. I’m only half joking..

 

Truth is there is a lot to be said for judging a deal at the time of fixing. As Eckhart Tolle tells us - all we have is NOW...

 

(Whats with my fascination with German philosophers....haha)

At the time of fixing we (competent professionals) hope to have considered all possible contingencies (the current market, our costs, our risks, our cash, our forward book, the freight futures market etc) before we agree to fix. Otherwise what criteria are we using? 

 

So - all aspects of a business are actually involved in what looks like a purely commercial transaction. All chartering people should be checking with operations, finance and the strategy people before pressing the green button.

 

And once the deal is confirmed watch all the different players go into overdrive hedging the risk (or locking in profits) using different strategies (if they wish to)..

 

Finally - my biggest reason for making a call on fixing..... imagine a world where we didn't celebrate the end of a negotiation. The nerves waiting for that confirmation after the final counter offer. The excitement and relief when subjects are lifted. Bells ringing, phone calls to your life partner explaining that huge deal you were working is done. The long lunches, the relief on your boss's face….

 

I have always been a little superstitious. Wearing my brokerage hat now - the best moment for me after brokering a deal is sitting at my desk (and only after subjects are lifted) and with calculator in hand working out the projected commission. Calculator (smart phone), beer, celebratory medium rare steak (in that order and within 15 minutes of each other). About as good as it gets (if shipping is your thing)

Heres to living in the moment 

VS 

 

The primary role of a shipbroker in a firm negotiation

 

Response to my LinkedIn Poll 

Shipbroker negotiations 

Which one is the most important?

The primary role of a shipbroker 'in a firm negotiation' is 

a) To get the best price and terms for their principal
b) To pass on offers and counter offers in a timely and accurate manner
c) To bring a successful negotiation to a close as quickly as possible

Which one is the most important and why?

We had a great response from lots of experienced people in the industry 

Results from the poll are 

A) - best price and terms                            56%

B) - pass on offers and counter                  13%

C) - Obtain a successful and quick deal     31%

Brilliant - and like most things in life the truth is a matter of opinion. 

Here is my take on the answer that I think best suits the role of a shipbroker (and why)

My answer is C - The primary role of a shipbroker in a firm negotiation is to bring a successful negotiation to a close as quickly as possible. 

Here is my justification  

At its most basic this is the only answer that prioritised fixing - which is why a broker is hired in the first place. Secondly, I have sneakily included the word 'successful' - which can be interpreted than more than just fixing (eg Happy Principals). Finally, in the hectic world of international tramp shipping - time is of an essence. 

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The is an old saying 'a quick deal is a good deal' and its true but not for the reasons that you may think. 

This has nothing to do with 'churning' or aggressively getting parties to accept things they otherwise should not. 

This is more a reflection of 25 years of negotiating shipping deals myself and also watching the best. Interestingly before I became a shipbroker, I spent my college years (5 of them) doing a retail sales job (to pay for beer and nightclubs) and in my academic career I also teach sales and marketing...

Here's my view. The best brokers (sales people, negotiators) have knack of getting things done 'relatively' quickly. Quicker than average or bad brokers. 

In my eyes, doing a quick deal has less to do with watching the clock and more about being the result of effective and highly advanced negotiation skills. In my course 'the VS dry cargo chartering and shipbroking certificate', I teach my students that every communication is an opportunity to bring the parties closer together - and hence should not be wasted. I have seen many brokers (and principals) lose deals because they have missed golden opportunities to solve obvious problems - quickly...

You will also note a quick deal is relative....so I'm not interested in absolutes like 20 minutes, or 1 day or 3 days....some deals take time!

BUT a good broker will pretty much always be quicker (eg; help complete a deal in 3 days compared to an average broker 6 days...or the bad broker might even lose the deal).

Why is time important?

1. The longer a negotiation goes the more likely it is that something will change that can upset the deal...

2. If a deal is taking a long time....the questions begs 'what's the hold up?'. A good broker is one that actively is looking for solutions to problems. In-fact a fixing machine pre-empts any foreseeable issue and can stop it from festering into something larger inevitablypushing the principals further apart - rather than closer.

This skill is a function of knowledge and empathy. Being able to put yourself in your principals' shoes can make you millions.

Principals shouldn't enter into firm negotiations if they aren't in a position to fix...so if there is a problem it's in everyone's interest to figure it out as quickly as possible. If one of the parties is stalling.....then figure out why and solve the problem!

3. The ability to 'close a deal'...

Despite the labels, Brokers, charterers and shipowners are people and people are different. Some 'people' are actually very cautious (some may say indecisive) negotiators and need a broker to get them over the line emotionally and financially...as uncomfortable as this may sound - it's the truth. 

Hopefully I don't need to convince anyone that it is a skill to 'close a deal'. This has been written about and studied for years (and it's a good thing) - parties can move on and be efficient in their next task....(another ship or another cargo).

One could argue that the greatest service a broker can provide is to 'get the deal done!' A stressed shipowner and/or charterer needs brokers who 'get the deal done'!

Relevance of closing the deal: case in point. Many shipping companies are now investing in sales courses for their chartering team. Many traditional chartering companies now employ people who have titles like 'business development, and 'sales executive'. This was not the case 10 short years ago. 

Finally, an uncomfortable truth (for the principals who are reading - I was a principal too remember) is that internally a broker is measured by 'revenue generated' not by 'did the broker successfully agree to everything his client says even if they missed the deal'...I have never seen that metric.

Before everyone screams!! There have been a number of occasions over 30 years that I advised clients not to take deals. 

1. If the deal is obviously bad (poor rates, terrible terms)
2. If the deal is with a bad counter party, 
3. If the counter party is pushing a clause that exposes them to too much risk
   

No Deal!

And guess what? This is part of the brokers role - to figure that out very quickly and advise the client - so that they/we can pursue better deals. An average broker will not flag a potential large problem that will ultimately see the deal fail. A waste of time and energy for everyone and 4 days too late (market has changed, other potential matches have disappeared...etc etc)

Every communication counts - Get the deal done!

VS

The VS Dry Cargo Chartering and Shipbroking certificate..

https://virtualshipbroker.blogspot.com/p/study.html

Teaching you the things that others won't, don't..(and can't)

The art of negotiation

The art of negotiation. Having a great time with my 10 students studying the 'virtual shipbroker chartering and ship broking certificate'. At the end of the learning blocks the students partake in simulated negotiations with a fellow student usually from another part of the globe. I mean 'simulated' with a small 's' because I have set it up in a way that is entirely realistic - with real ships, real charterers and real life nuanced situations. It's a massive learning curve and a negotiation is a great way to bring together and contextualise all the learning materials. The feedback from students is always a surprise and it's why I know how beneficial these exercises are. Stay well..

https://virtualshipbroker.blogspot.com/p/study.html

Shipbroker Hedge - Dealing with an uncertain future Part 3

Hi all

This continues my series of post aimed at helping the chartering community deal with uncertainty through creative ideas, investments and side hustles

7 - Keep your Job

Now this sounds a bit boring but lets look at some facts. With gold going through the roof and most investment classes (shares, property, interest rates) going backwards - those with steady jobs and steady cashflow can make huge gains (against the flock). 

If you use this time to be a little frugal and get your cash reserves up you will be in a position to take advantage of the swing when it becomes obvious that good times are returning. 

What we tend to do is look at our investment returns compared to previous returns. But in reality we should look at investment returns compared to others..

So yes - saving and putting money into cash may seem like a slow burn in a usual market BUT in this market (where many have portfolios retreating by 20-50 percent) treading water and improving cash positions is actually making you rich...

8 - “Alternative” Investing

For those who still have an appetite for risk. Alternative investments are vehicles like peer-to-peer lending, real estate crowdfunding, business lending, and even cryptocurrency.

This is one of my favorite side hustles because it’s automated and passive. Check out options like https://fundrise.com, which allows you to invest in revenue-generating commercial properties for as little as $500.

9 - Start a shipping blog or write a shipping book

Too late.....market is saturated

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And finally it is important to keep dreaming big.....this guy knows it!

VS

Lebanon

My thoughts go those in Lebanon after the explosion around the port district....

Hard to watch the footage...

Sign of the times

VS - chartering and shipbroking certificate update

Well folks - spots are filling up fast...only one or maybe 2 spots left...

Well done to those who have taken up the challenge - should be fun. Looks like we will start first week August...

Happy to say that a former excellent student of mine (who is now a senior person with a first class company) has referred a number of his colleagues.....cannot get better testimonial than that!

Approx 30 minutes per day....

Course details are here

https://virtualshipbroker.blogspot.com/p/study.html

Yours
VS

Shipbroker hedge - dealing with an uncertain future Part 2

This is the second part of my series intended to help the chartering fraternity deal with uncertainty through creative ideas, investments and side hustles

4 - Buy a ship!

As a shipbroker for example - we might think that technology is likely to render some of our services redundant in the future (I beg to differ). Just to be safe - why not hedge that risk by joining the dark side and becoming a shipowner. Stuff will always need to be moved!

Now this might sound like a bit of a stretch.....I mean who amongst the chartering desk has a spare 20 million sitting around? NOT ME....

Here's the thing - the way we own things is starting change. Did you know that in some parts of the world you can buy a share of a house. So you get to own 'part' of a house for as little as 500 bucks.....

This is great for young people unable to buy a full house, and its even great for micro investors looking to spread their risk. As the price of the house goes up your investment goes up and vice versa.

WELL we can now do that with ships. There are a few groups around the place who are asking for minimum type investments to be part of syndicates to buy ships.

Do some research / due diligence etc and see what you can find. These guys Marvest are onto something but I think have gone a little quiet recently (with the crazy market)

5 - Buy Shipping stocks

Again - for any ship chartering boffin its almost impossible to know how to pick which areas of shipping will boom and which will bust over the long term. I regularly receive emails from brokers asking which markets I believe will have the greatest growth in the future. The harsh truth - I DON"T KNOW. I could guess but I prefer to let the experts do the picking.

2 ways - Buy into a shipping fund or purchase individual shipping stocks..

Splash wrote an article on this HERE although I do question their idea that regular Joes (and Janes) can purchase FFA's which are business to business transactions..

6. Sperm Donor

Ok so this one is for the chaps. 

In the UK a sperm donor receives 35 pounds per visit....USA between 35 and 120 bucks per visit...Singapore 100 Bucks...

On a business trip - have some spare time between meetings? why not be productive?

From latest calculations there may be close to 750 mini virtual shipbrokers around the globe. Quite the money spinner.

More to come

VS

Happy Guru Purnima!

A lovely message from a friend of the blog. Made my week!

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Hi Andrew, Your blogs on Virtual Shipbroker were really insightful & helpful when I was preparing for my first foray into commercial shipping. Its been close to 12 years now and for someone who didn't have much exposure to commercial back then, your blogs + your initial books helped open a clear window of the effort required and expectation to keep in the business. 

I wrote a couple of times to you on your blog but a "Big Thank You" is due and I remain thankful to you in being a keep source of inspiration. Lehmann Brothers going bust was bad news to the world in 2008, but thats what drew my career path for the next 12 years. I will thank the Lehmann brothers some other day, but today I want to thank you mate. 

"He alone teaches who has something to give, for teaching is not talking, teaching is not imparting doctrines, it is communicating." - Happy Guru Purnima! Now that's something for you to look up on and once you do, you will know what it means!
Warm Regards
SN

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Thank you SN and happy 'Guru Purnima' to you too!

VS

Shipbrokers Hedge - dealing with an uncertain future

No - this is not a series of posts around how charterers or shipowners can hedge freight risk. So no I will not be discussing paper markets, long term time charters or COA's (contracts of affreightments).

With all the uncertainty around the world this is a shout out to chartering people round the globe.

How can 'we' best weather the economic, technological, financial and environmental shit storm (pardon the English) that is upon us?

So here is my pick of practical, alternative, income ideas and side hustles perfect for shipbrokers and chartering people across the globe. We are a unique bunch with certain collective attributes that avail us to certain opportunities not necessarily open to others.

I currently invest, do, participate in each of these ideas (just so that you know I would not ask you do anything I wouldn't)

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The Virtual Shipbrokers top 15 side hustles and hedge ideas for the globe chartering community


1. Buy Gold!

When the worlds economies are hurting - shipping markets also hurt. Demand is down, vessels are under employed, banks start screaming and our jobs are on the line.

So lets go defensive and BUY GOLD....

'Between Nov. 30, 2007, and June 1, 2009, the S&P 500 index fell 36%. The price of gold, on the other hand, rose 25%. This is the most recent example of a material and prolonged stock downturn, but it's also a particularly dramatic one because, at the time, there were very rea­l concerns about the viability of the global financial system'.

Strategy - 25 percent of your income from now on goes into buying gold. There is no passive income here but you can protect your asset wealth.

Want to know how to buy gold?

Click Here


2. Invest in Supply Chain Tech

Worried that technology is taking over shipping? Worried that big data, robots and geeks in turtle necks will be taking over our jobs? Hedge that risk by being an owner in that future.

Maritime tech is in a funny situation at the moment. There are quite a few fake it till you make mobs who will soon run out of steam in this current economic environment. There will be little appetite for funding and the established, value laden firms will survive. Great article Here

So I suggest broadening the hedge and investing in supply chain solutions, block chain etc

Click here for more information


3. In office pet sitting

When homeowners travel, it opens up an opportunity for pet sitting services to come by and take care of their animals. This is perfect for us! 

When fixtures have dried up for a month, or a a voyage has gone wrong with unforeseen delays - Send out the company chauffeur at 7am to round up the clan and bring these fury creatures into the office. 

It will be great for morale and the benefits to the bottom line are obvious. The more pets the better.

This is now my major form of income...and the dog is now a trainee

Pawshake

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More side hacks to come!

Ted Talk about shipping

Hey everyone the Markets are UPPPPP!!!

Some record gains on the dry bulk side.....lets hope it continues

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I stumbled on this and really enjoyed it.

Deserves more views

I fixed a few ships with Doric over the years

Enjoy

VS

VS Chartering and Shipbroking Certificate

Hi All

I am running a new course starting in August. We already have 4 keen students and have room for a few more.

ON ITS 13TH INTAKE

https://virtualshipbroker.blogspot.com/p/study.html

Will be fun and you will learn a heap.

If you are interested please send me an email and we can discuss

virtualshipbroker@yahoo.com

Best Regards
VS

Who is reading this week? Thanks for stopping by

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Are shipping people happy?

This article is from the digital ship

Worth repeating here

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Shipping industry employees are prioritising greater efforts to improve diversity and inclusion, as well as workplace support for training and development - and are increasingly prepared to look for new jobs elsewhere, according to the results of a major annual survey.

The 11th Annual Maritime Employee Survey was conducted earlier this year by Halcyon Recruitment, Diversity Study Group and Coracle Maritime and the results have now been published.

As well as providing revealing results into the opinions of employees ahead of the full impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, the survey also provides valuable insights for employers on the challenges they face when the crisis passes.

When looking at diversity, over half of participants (52 per cent) have been aware of discrimination in the industry but, perhaps surprisingly given the industry’s recent focus on gender balance in shipping, gender discrimination does not top the list. The most commonly cited areas of concern over discrimination were nationality (60 per cent), followed by age (41 per cent), gender (37 per cent) and ethnicity (32 per cent).

Only 60 per cent of employees cite their company culture as being one where they feel supported in the workplace and an overwhelming 90 per cent would like their employer to do more to create a workplace where everyone feels valued and able to contribute.

The survey results suggest a keen appetite for learning and development. 74 Per cent of participants would like to have a defined development plan to help understand what they need to do in order to do their job better. Vessel Operators rank highest (81 per cent), perhaps a contributing factor as to why so many in this segment (60 per cent) are actively looking for new employment.

By contrast, less than half of respondents (48 per cent) have had at least one meaningful conversation about their personal development with their line manager in the six months preceding survey completion.

The survey also revealed that 55 per cent of employees are actively seeking a new role and a further 39 per cent are open to offers. This translates into just 6 per cent of employees being committed to their current role; something that employers would do well to understand better.

76 Per cent of respondents are motivated to take part in training to enhance the skills needed to develop their career but only 45 per cent of respondents work for companies who provide external training and education opportunities, and only 62 per cent are given internal training and education opportunities.

Commenting on the results of the survey, Heidi Heseltine, chief executive officer of Halcyon Recruitment, said:

“The commitment and resilience of shipping employees around the globe has been widely reported and much praised during the COVID-19 crisis. It is widely recognised that an overnight change occurred for most employees, requiring immediate adaptation to remote working and new technologies; both areas where the shipping industry has lagged behind many other industries. Quite rightly, many employers have openly praised our employees and, one could argue, started to recognise them as the most valuable asset of any organisation.

“Our survey was conducted just before COVID-19 turned into a global pandemic. Prior to that, there was growing discussion about creating inclusive working environments, encouraging diversity and how to attract and retain talent. Our research reveals some trends which should worry the industry at any time, but particularly now when we rely more than ever on an engaged, motivated workforce.

“There is a lot of speculation about the long-term impact of the pandemic on our workplaces and working lives, but it is already clear that employees are looking for more than a return to ‘business as usual’. They are also increasingly willing to move to find it. This should be a clear incentive for employers to consider what changes they can make to support their teams, including meaningful action on inclusivity and diversity, greater flexibility and more support for learning and development.”

The survey was conducted in the first quarter of 2020 and attracted over 1,300 responses, with results broken down by business areas, market sector and location. The purpose of the survey is to provide a platform to the men and women that work in the maritime industry and to listen to their perspective on their careers and working environments. Halcyon Recruitment, Diversity Study Group and Coracle Maritime are grateful to everyone who took the time to complete the survey.

The survey report is available on the Halcyon website. To download a copy, visit https://www.halcyonrecruitment.com/employee-survey.pdf. 

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Interesting stuff. Be great to get some comments happening especially from the younger brigade. Do you guys agree?

Make a comment (you can do so anonymously)

VS

STUDY

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