Seeing though he asked so nicely
Qte
Hi VS,
I am one of your many e-book buyers.(not sure if you believe it or not, I can provide proof)
Since you are the best online GURU ( "massage the ego,applicable to all industries"sounds familiar =D ), hope you can clear some doubts of mine:
1) The BDI is an indicator of the actual market activity. Is it a real-time moving index like the Dow Jones? What time is it being release? which country's clock does it follow?
(I believe its London time around midday)
2) If the BDI is up , is it likely that big bulk carriers stocks will go up as well?
(Yes good assumption)
3) I saw some bulk carrier (BC) stocks e.g DRYS & EXM in US reaching sky high price in 2007. Is it gonna to happen again or will it even get to one-third of its peak in 2 years time?
(wont reach 2007 highs for a long long time)
4) How do you see the BDI in 2-3 years time? Is it a good choice to go long for bulk carrier stocks? If it is ,which are the ones you are familiar with or better still you have insider info of ( just joking).
(I am bearish on shipping stocks due to the massive amount of new ships coming into the market)
A lengthy email indeed, please take your time to answer ( really hope u do as it would proof that you are a nice guy=)
Regards,
Mr Singapore 2010
(You are welcome - wax on/wax off)
To all who may know the answers...
ReplyDeleteExcellent - a thread on the BDI. I am currently trying to get into the Shipbroking industry and have a million questions about... well... just about everything! This seems like the ideal time to get a few away about the BDI... I hope they aren't too stupid:
1 - Is there a Baltic Wet Index or a Baltic Container Index? If so, why don't I hear about them?
2 - BDI is often referred to as a "leading indicator of economic activity". How can it really be that if the index is depressed by the supply of ships, rather than the implied reduction of global demand for raw materials?
3 - Why aren't commodity prices themselves not considered a better 'leading indicator of economic activity'? Presumably FFAs influence the BDI in just the same way as futures obscure commodity indices (see next question)?
4 - Does the BDI factor in FFA prices?
5 - If so much of Dry Shipping is dependent on China, is the BDI really more of a measure of Chinese economic strength relative to other leading economies?
6 - Are all FFAs priced against the BDI? What about FFA specifically related to Tankers and Containers (I realise the latter are very new)?
I look forward to some kind soul putting me out of my misery.
Thank you VS - Inside Shipbroking was indeed a fantastic start and I regularly visit this site to read your posts and use your news links. Please keep up the good work.
Thank you for this fruitful Q&A, and the blog as a whole!
ReplyDeleteI have learnt a lot about the shipbroking industry~