Long time readers of the blog will know my love for sport. Golf (9 handicap), skiing, tennis, more recently basketball and football all play a part in my enjoyment of life. I like playing them, watching them and like my relationship with shipping, I love analysing them.
So the EPL is still the number one league in the world. Most money, many of the worlds top players, 3 or 4 of the worlds top 10 clubs, closely followed by Spain, Germany, France and Italy.
But the truth is I find watching the EPL quite boring. There is no doubt regarding the skill and level of overall expertise on show but all this in some weird way has managed to take the character out of the game.
Here is the irony - all the technology (stats revolution), sports science, diet, MBA style management etc designed to give clubs an edge has in fact brought them closer together. All top clubs now spend millions on these same elements.
So no longer are those things necessary to get an edge they are now necessary just to keep up!
So on the field we see some interesting things. We see almost perfect football. Strong, fast athletes who are so well drilled into team tactics that any mistake sticks out like a sore thumb...
The precision is something to watch. Some of the greatest players virtually never make a mistake. First touch is perfect, pass hits the mark, and through some system or another the ball makes its way up the pitch and a goal is scored (hopefully).
But off course teams are now equally as well drilled in defence.
The game now seems like a war of attrition rather than a thing of beauty. So now I like watching the championship (the league below the EPL) because I see things that are unexpected - less than perfect.
So how is this like shipping? Well the last 10 years (and certainly the last 5) we have see the rapid expansion of technology (big data) trying to gain traction in the industry. We also have so many more MBA education, highly credential boffins running the big companies these days.
Data is analysed in every direction, trade routes, commodity markets - even the share market is now being compared to the shipping markets just to see who can get an edge.
The problem from my perspective is when you combine this amazing information (some great people in marine Tech no doubt) with almost unlimited access via so many media channels - then where is the advantage? The technology guys need to make a buck so unless someone pays millions for exclusivity then others are getting the same information.
Currently I can follow 20 companies on 'linkedin' who give me free technical market information - but so can everyone else.
I can also pay a subscription to a private company who will have disseminated the market in 30 different ways - but so can everyone else
I can rely on my broker to send me market reports - but so can everyone else.
And here is the interesting kicker - the market has now factored that 'intelligence' in.
So efficient market analysis is now part of the actual market. The market is now being influenced by 'risk' professionals more than ever before.
So in my mind the result is a little bit boring. It means that you could argue there is little advantage listening to anyone and just get on with your job and 'face the market'. You might just save thousands of dollars in consultancy fees.
If you are shipowner - just buy low (ships that is), watch your cash, diversify with long term and short term charters and play with the futures market.
If you are a charterer - Buy low (freight), hedge where you can, and if you feel like taking on some risk then keep your exposure open.
If you are broker - I do know that the technology is helping speed up processes which is great. Butt the bottom line is the same. Its all about relationships.
That leaves a whole big space for freight traders (ship operators) - historically the guys willing to play the game and take on most of that risk. These guys should be spending more on tech then others I would think - and talking to those in the know this is the growth area.
Whats the moral? Well in the EPL we love watching the stars. The ones that can dribble and that can change a game of their own feet and their own willpower. That will never change and these guys earn the big bucks deservedly. You also get the feeling that those very top guys probably go into dream mode when the 'experts' come in.
Its difficult to see the 'gaps' when everyone toes the line. The smartest in the room will always find a way.
Trust your instincts and believe in yourself.
Enjoy the weekend
VS
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