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Hi. I am a shipping company director, transport academic, author, family man and all round nice guy. I have worked as shipbroker, shipowner, freight trader and bulk charterer, in senior positions, with some of the largest and most disrespected (joke) companies in the world. Ask my advice on all things shipping and you will receive my blunt and always honest answer. Hang around to learn more about chartering and ship broker salaries, chartering and ship broker jobs, chartering and shipbroker recruitment agencies, cheap freight, maritime education, chartering and ship broker qualifications, become a ship broker, tips on how to be a successful bulk shipping executive, philosophy, Zen and the art of shipbroking, and much more. Yours The Virtual Shipbroker (recently proclaimed the guru of shipbroking) Copyright © 2009-17 by Virtualshipbroker

Thursday, June 11, 2015

Freight market update!!

Ready for it..................


No change


and


Wont change for at least 2 years.

On the supply side - the good news is that new orders (for new ships) have dried up completely and scrappings (of old ships) will continue nicely. So I reckon 2018-2019 we might see an upturn.

BUT like every other market report for the last 15 years the direction and speed of the market all depends on 'China' - well mostly anyway...

See don't bother paying Clarksons or SSY thousands for market reports...send me the cheque..

Virtual Shipbroker
Blue Sheep Way
8,000 meters
Bhutan




1 comment:

  1. Hi VS - we are often required to come up with a forecast for freight rates in our line of work. I have seen that newbuild rates are usually more stable than 5 year TC rates, so the way I approach this exercise is taking an average new build rate from the previous 2-3 years, build in a 2 year construction period, and try to plug in a number for the TC rate from year 3 to year 18 (15 year life) that'll give a 10% IRR to the shipowner. A straightforward calculation in excel. Additionally, I assume a 15-25% scrap value for the ship.
    I ran these numbers a few days ago for 74k dwt Panamaxes, and was getting 11k USD per day as a 'stable' TC rate. Does this look reasonble to you?

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